Which actors can win their first Oscar in 2026? Michael B Jordan, Timothee Chalamet, Jessie Buckley, and more chase Academy Award glory

The 98th Academy Awards arrive on March 15, 2026, and one storyline dominates the acting races. Several major performers could finally win their first Oscar. Awards season has already provided strong clues. Precursor ceremonies such as the Golden Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice Awards, and the SAG Awards have shaped the narrative, giving certain contenders clear momentum.

Some names enter the night as overwhelming favourites. Others remain strong challengers hoping for a late surprise from Academy voters. What makes this year exciting is the mix of rising stars, respected international talent, and longtime actors finally receiving recognition. Here are the performers most likely to win their first Academy Award this year.

Among all the acting races, Best Actress appears to be the clearest. Jessie Buckley has dominated the awards circuit for her performance in Hamnet. In the film, she plays Agnes Shakespeare, the wife of William Shakespeare, whose life is shaped by grief after a devastating family tragedy.

Critics have described Buckley’s performance as emotionally raw and deeply moving. Her portrayal captures both quiet sorrow and fierce resilience. That emotional intensity has resonated across the industry.

Buckley already secured major wins at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, BAFTA, and the SAG Awards. When multiple precursors align like this, it often signals a near certain Oscar victory. At just 36, the Irish actor could claim her first Academy Award and cement her reputation as one of the most respected performers of her generation.

Norwegian star Renate Reinsve returns to the Oscars conversation with Sentimental Value. The actor first gained global attention with The Worst Person in the World, and this new role has strengthened her reputation as one of Europe’s most compelling screen talents.

In the film, Reinsve plays Nora Borg, an actress navigating a complicated relationship with her father. The story focuses on emotional distance, family history, and personal reinvention.

Her performance is quiet but deeply layered. Critics praise the subtle emotional shifts she brings to the character. While she has not swept major awards this season, many voters still admire the craft behind the performance. If the Academy chooses subtlety over intensity, Reinsve could become a surprise first time winner.

Rose Byrne enters the race with If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, an unconventional film that blends comedy and emotional drama. The Australian actor plays a mother struggling with exhaustion, frustration, and personal identity.

The role allows Byrne to display a wider emotional range than many of her previous performances. Known for strong supporting roles in comedies and ensemble films, she takes centre stage here with a performance that feels messy, honest, and deeply human.

Industry experts often highlight Byrne as the kind of nominee voters sometimes reward for originality. Even if she is not the frontrunner, a win would mark a major career moment and her first Academy Award.

The Best Actor race is far less predictable, but Michael B Jordan has gained serious momentum. His performance in Sinners features a demanding dual role as identical twins in a Southern Gothic thriller.

Jordan’s work balances technical precision with emotional complexity. Playing two distinct characters in the same film is always challenging, and critics praise how convincingly he separates the personalities.

A key moment arrived when Jordan won the SAG Award, often considered a strong indicator of Oscar success. After years of acclaimed performances in films such as Fruitvale Station, Creed, and Black Panther, this could finally be the moment that earns him his first Academy Award.

Timothee Chalamet has already built an impressive awards resume at a young age. With nominations for Call Me by Your Name and A Complete Unknown, he enters the race again with Marty Supreme.

In the film, Chalamet plays table tennis champion Marty Mauser. The role required intense preparation and physical training, while also capturing the emotional pressure faced by elite athletes.

Chalamet started the season strongly with wins at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. Although recent awards losses have slowed his momentum, he remains a strong contender. At 30 years old, he would become one of the youngest Best Actor winners in modern Oscars history.

Brazilian actor Wagner Moura delivers one of the most intense performances of the year in The Secret Agent. Known globally for Narcos, Moura brings a quieter and more restrained style to this espionage thriller.

The role relies on tension and internal conflict rather than dramatic speeches. Critics say Moura communicates powerful emotions through subtle expressions and controlled performances.

If he wins, Moura would become the first Brazilian actor to take home the Best Actor Oscar. That historic possibility keeps his name firmly in the conversation even if he is not the leading favourite.

Ethan Hawke has spent decades building one of the most respected careers in American independent cinema. Despite four previous Oscar nominations across acting and writing, he has never won.

His latest performance in Blue Moon once again reminds audiences why he is so admired. The film may not have massive awards buzz, but Hawke’s work has received consistent praise from critics.

Many voters see him as an artist who has shaped modern independent film. If the Academy chooses to honour a career of excellence, Hawke could finally receive the Oscar that has eluded him for years.